Making outcomes theory more concrete – checklist for assessing outcomes systems April 21, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Attribution, Communicating outcomes models, Doing evaluation more efficiently, Measurement, Outcomes models, Outcomes systems architecture, Outcomes theory, Reporting systems, Strategic planning, Using the approach , 1 comment so farMost normal people would think that it’s very very obscure, but I’ve just put up a Checklist for Analyzing Outcomes Systems in the Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base and it’s a very exciting development. Up until now the Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base has consisted of a set of articles which outline various aspects of outcomes theory. Outcomes theory is a general theory which covers all types of outcomes systems. Outcomes systems are any type of performance management system, results-base system, monitoring system, evaluation system, outcomes-focused contracting system, or strategic planning system (the term even includes evidence-based practice systems). Such systems have, in the past, been seen as somewhat different types of things without a common theory existing to analyze them. Outcomes theory is based on the insight that we can theorize them as a common type of system and then use the theory to work out how such systems should be best structured. This approach becomes powerful at the moment that we can start applying it to actual real-world outcomes systems. This is the role of the checklist I’ve just developed. (more…)
Reliability versus validity – read on it’s important! April 16, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Evaluation debates, Indicators, Measurement , 2commentsNow that Easter is over (and the yard gate has been built to keep in the dog that my wife and the kids have their hearts set on getting). I’m back blogging. Today I want to talk about the difference between reliability and validity. It sounds technical, but read on, its really important in a lot of results and outcomes areas. In psychology, where I come from, they spend a lot of time drumming this distinction into you. Reliability is whether measurements at different times and by different people will give you the same result. Validity is whether you are measuring the right thing. (more…)
Problems in pay for performance systems April 9, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Attribution, Measurement, Outcomes models, Outcomes systems architecture, Outcomes theory, Reporting systems, Using the approach , 2commentsSorry, I stopped blogging there for a day or two due to a computer problem, and I will also not be blogging over the Easter Break, but will be back daily blogging after that. Today I’m looking at problems in a pay for performance system. From the point of view of outcomes theory, pay for performance systems are just another example of an outcomes system. Outcomes systems are any system which attempts to identify, measure, attribute and hold people, organizations or programs to account. A U.S. GAO report [2] on one such system is interesting reading (for those with a taste for obscure government reports). It reviews the National Security Personnel System which has just been put on hold by the Obama administration and they may axe it [1]. The problems identified in the GAO report include: (more…)
Why just about every indicator system in the world needs to be fixed! April 5, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Communicating outcomes models, Doing evaluation more efficiently, Easy Outcomes, Evaluation planning, Indicators, Measurement, Outcomes models, Outcomes systems architecture, Reporting systems, Standards, Using the approach , 1 comment so farI’ve just posted a new article in the Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base on why it is essential to map indicators onto an underlying visual outcomes model. I blogged a little while ago about why we should be wary of too-tidy indicator sets and in the article I explain why. The vast majority of indicator systems in the world suffer from the problem set out in the article – they are just a straight list of indicators set out in tabular format. They give the user no idea as to whether a number of important steps and outcomes are not being measured. Those using such systems remain blissfully unaware of this. In my view, all these straight indicator sets need to be fixed. It’s not particularly difficult, it just requires some work. How to draw the underlying outcomes models is set out in the outcomes model standards and how to then use such models for indicator mapping and many other things is described in detail in the applied version of outcomes theory – Easy Outcomes. (more…)
Beware of suspiciously tidy indicator sets March 19, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Attribution, Communicating outcomes models, Easy Outcomes, Indicators, Measurement, Outcomes models, Reporting systems , 1 comment so farI’ve just come away from presenting at a national Philanthropy conference as part of a half day session on evaluation and outcomes. I was presenting on the use of the Easy Outcomes approach as a way of grantees structuring outcomes, indicators and evaluation. I will tidy up the outcomes model I used and post a link to it in a blog in a week or so. A lot of interesting points came up in the discussion and I will blog on several of them over the next few days. The first one is to be beware of suspiciously tidy indicator sets. The Easy Outcomes approach gets people to draw an outcomes model (intervention logic) of what they are trying to do without worrying about what they can and can’t measure and what they can, and can’t demonstrate is attributable to their particular project (both of these issues are dealt with later in the process). You draw the models using the guidelines here.
(more…)
Bonuses role in the financial melt-down March 16, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Indicators, Measurement, Outcomes models, Outcomes theory, Outcomes theory & politics, Outcomes theory & the news, Reporting systems , add a commentPresident Obama has amplified the attack on bonuses being paid to staff in companies which have been bailed out by the U.S. government (CNN, 16 March 2009). What does outcomes theory have to say about the role of the bonus system in the current financial meltdown? I blogged in 2007 about the problem of bonuses in the financial system and how it was possible the full extent of the melt-down would take time to be revealled. Thinking in terms of an outcomes model, what has happened is that financial institutions should have been aiming (as they do in healthy times) at the overall outcome of Sustainable long-run profitability. (more…)
Attibution and President Bush’s approval rating December 7, 2008
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Attribution, Impact evaluation, Indicators, Measurement, Outcomes systems architecture, Outcomes theory & the news, Reporting systems , add a comment
I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about indicators and attribution these days. I think that a lot of problems (particularly misinterpretations of how well or badly parties are doing within outcomes systems of all types arise because of confusion between attributable and not-necessarily attributable indicators. The underying Five Building Blocks Diagram which is used in outcomes theory makes a distiction between attributable and not-necessarily attributable indicators.The Washington Post today had an interactive showing President Bush’s Approval Rating over time. At various points, the graph had labels showing what was happening at the time, presumably to help the reader work out why his rating went up and down at the points it did. The biggest jump was around September 11 where his approval took a massive leap from something like 56% to 92% (reading off the graph). Below is a section from the interactive. (more…)
Sharing the pain – crazy indicators, targets and funder reporting systems December 4, 2008
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Accountability, Doing evaluation more efficiently, DoView, Easy Outcomes, Indicators, Measurement, Outcomes systems architecture, Reporting systems, Using the approach , add a comment
This blog post is a follow-up to an earlier posting on my blog. In a comment on that posting, M&Egirl outlined problems she was having with a funder demanding targets that are meaningless and asked for more comment on this obsession with targets on the part of funders.
The program she is working on is a Gender Related Violence program, which for the sake of this discussion I’ll presume involves women who have been subject to gender related violence receiving some sort of intervention to help them be safe and move beyond the trauma they have suffered. Because the issue of indicators and targets is such an important issue I thought that I’d do a further posting on it. If you have a moment, have a quick read of the original posting and M&Egirl’s comment before reading this blog posting. (more…)
Impact evaluation’s day in the sun (Part II) December 1, 2008
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Attribution, Impact evaluation, Measurement, Uncategorized , 1 comment so far
(See the previous posting Part I first). Progressing the debate around impact evaluation means unpacking some of the different issues which are involved in the debate. In doing this, it should not be assumed that those on various sides in the debate will always side in the same way with each of the sub-issues. In my doctorate (Duignan, 1997) I did this type of analysis for the positivist versus constructivist debate which was hot for a while within evaluation circles. Drawing on that analysis, we can now to look at the sub-issues which underly the impact evaluation debate because there are a number of similarities with the earlier debate. The sub-issues which can underly the impact evaluation debate and two contrasting positions that can be taken on them include the following: (more…)
Indicators, targets, benchmarks – sorting out the terminology November 27, 2007
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Indicators, Measurement, Outcomes systems architecture, Outcomes theory, Using the approach , 2commentsMany different terms are used in the outcomes and performance management area for measurement and indicators. Often there is considerable confusion about these terms. The short definitions I use from outcomes theory are:
- Outcomes – causes or effects in the real world. Whether or not such causes can be measured is a separate issue (see previous blog for features of outcomes)
- Steps - lower level causes which lead to higher-level outcomes. Because causal processes reside in causal hierarchies, outcomes at one level can be steps for achieving even higher-level outcomes, therefore to refer to causes and effects at any level the general term ‘outcomes and steps’ is used.
- Measurements – measure whether or not an outcome or step has occurred (or how much of it has occurred).
- Indicator – a measurement of an outcome or step.
- Target - a level on an indicator.
- Benchmark – levels on indicators already achieved by other players, or by the same player at an earlier time or in another setting.
- Priorities - an outcome or step which is thought to be the most important for a player to focus their efforts on changing.