14 years for revealing an indicator! February 8, 2009
Posted by Paul Duignan in : Indicators, Outcomes theory & politics, Outcomes theory & the news , trackbackOne of the principles of outcomes theory is that if you want groups of stakeholders to not have a complete understanding of what is happening as an outcomes model plays out, you try to suppress information about indicators of outcomes which are heading in the wrong direction. There is currently a story in the media about a UK officer being arrested in Afghanistan for allegedly supplying civilian casualty figures to a human rights campaigner. The CNN story is here.
As far as I know, no one has drawn a formal outcomes model for Afghanistan (using the standards for drawing outcomes models). As with Iraq, drawing such a model would be a good idea to promote discussion about what exactly are the outcomes being sought, the steps which it is believed will lead to them and the evidence that these steps are likely to achieve the outcomes. Anyway, if such a model was drawn for Afghanistan it would include within it an outcome along the lines of ‘minimizing civilian causalities’. If the indicator for such an outcomes is deteriorating, then this is the type of information that those promoting the current type of intervention will want to suppress if they think that it being revealed will increase pressure on them from those who object to the current intervention or want it modified.
Apparently the soldier in question, if convicted of breaching the Official Secrets Act, could face up to 14 years in prison. The military authorities may say that he is being arrested on the principle of releasing any information covered by the Official Secrets Act, not particularly because it is about civilian causalities. But the important point is that the indicator of civilian causalities is covered by the Official Secrets Act in the first place. A classic example of attempting to suppress indicator information from an outcomes model in order to manage stakeholders perceptions of what is happening as an outcomes model plays out.
Paul Duignan, PhD
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